Intrade political betting polls

From that point, right up until the eve of the election, Intrade consistently showed Obama with a lower chance of winning, and Romney with a bigger chance of winning, than other betting sides did, particularly those operated by professional bookmakers. Intrade generally put the probability of Obama winning at somewhere between sixty and seventy per cent. At least in theory, a speculator could have made money by betting on Obama at Intrade and hedging his position by betting on Romney at the bookmakers.

The fact that the gap remained raised questions about how Intrade operated, and whether it was really, as it claimed, a deep and liquid market. Thompson quoted the University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers, who has long been a student and defender of prediction markets. About all we really know is that Intrade has shut down, quite possibly for good. After the C. Recently, one of the most popular activities on the site had been speculating about the identity of the next Pope. As of yesterday, the market had been saying that the election of an Italian pontiff was the single most-likely outcome, with an implied probability of forty-seven per cent.

The clear favorite was Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, whose chances of victory the market participants estimated at twenty-five per cent. Logging onto a political forecasting website called PredictIt, he quickly bet a few hundred dollars that Biden would enter the race. As Miller expected, the odds soared as the news spread. Soon he had notched a nice profit. So it has gone all year for Miller. Welcome to the new American campaign casino. For the first time in modern history, the average citizen 18 years or older can legally place real-money wagers on politics, in a marketplace approved by federal regulators.

The new market for political betting, coupled with the explosion of the multi-billion dollar fantasy-sports industry that was roiled by scandal this week , has raised questions about the spread of online betting markets that have few rules to prevent forms of insider trading. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed.

But PredictIt also allows for those with inside knowledge of future political events—campaign pros, candidate aides or pollsters—to profit as well. The danger of market manipulation came into sharp relief this week, as DraftKings and FanDuel, the billion-dollar behemoths of the daily fantasy sports market, were engulfed by reports of insider trading. Some employees at the firms have early access to valuable data on the composition of every single roster assembled by its users.

An employee could exploit this information by selecting players—for example, a star quarterback who is being under-utilized relative to his value—that would give him the inside lane toward a victory. DraftKings rules barred employees from betting on their own site, but did not forbid betting on rival sites. Both sports betting sites released a joint statement Tuesday to respond to the concerns.

Take the betting market on the next majority leader of the House of Representatives. When influential Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan put out a Sept. Anyone with advance knowledge of the press release could have made money. Secretary-General will be a woman.

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Sign up Betting on elections in the U. But gamblers in Europe bet heavily on U. More on these sites in a moment. Gamblers have an edge over pollsters, says David Rothschild, a Microsoft researcher who runs PredictWise. After all, when you actually put your money where your mouth is, you tend to be careful. In the U. That market has generally been more accurate than polls in a wide swath of executive, legislative, national and local elections.

The betting markets are far from infallible. Most pollsters, meanwhile, accurately predicted both events. As everyone who has ever played the ponies knows, sometimes a long shot wins. And Trump is hardly a long shot at this point in the campaign, and, of course, things could change quickly for many reasons including the outcomes of the remaining presidential debates.

Interested in investing in the election markets? Full disclosure: I've placed wagers on a Clinton victory on this site. But the website, in the midst of a much-needed update, is a bit confusing to navigate opens in new tab. If you short sold shares — selling without buying — you make a profit. Sidebar: The Fix is a terrible gambler. The site also posts a probability that an event will happen, which is just the price of shares turned into a percentage.

Thus, the site gives him a 67 percent chance of winning. Story continues How big is InTrade? Hundreds of millions of dollars are traded each year, according to Intrade officials. A lot of the action is concentrated on whatever is in the news that day or week.

Right now, over a thousand trades a day are happening on Romney, while only one person bet on the likelihood of a Category 3 storm hitting the U. Where did InTrade come from? Intrade was founded in by Irish businessman John Delaney. The company is based in Dublin. Delaney was born in near Dublin, he got an M.

In , he went into online gambling. He also founded TradeSports. Delaney died this May at the age of 42 while attempting to climb Mount Everest, a lifelong ambition. Is it reliable? Yes and no. In , bettors got only two states wrong — Indiana and Missouri. Bettors thought Indiana would go Republican and Missouri would go Democratic. Neither prediction was right. Those two states canceled each other out, however, keeping the site very close to the actual electoral college total. In , the site got every state right.

Bettors tend to follow polls closely , and polls when appropriately screened for bias or poor methodology tend to be pretty accurate in the aggregate. Back in June, the site gave former Utah governor Jon Huntsman an 11 percent chance at winning the nomination.