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This is a team that is , but its losses came by double-digits and its win by three. New England ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. And now face the Packers in Green Bay.

I'm not sure why this wouldn't be a blowout, and neither is FPI. But on the Jaguars it has been aggressive, seeing that Trevor Lawrence is playing at an entirely different level this season. From the model's standpoint, this is the best team in the division. It makes the Jags the 11th-best team in football going forward -- don't be lulled by the Colts' surprise win over the Chiefs.

And the Jaguars have the easiest remaining schedule in the division going forward. So FPI would like their chances even if they didn't already have a half-game lead in the division, but they do! What is your best bet for Week 4? Josh Allen and the Bills have been throwing, throwing and then throwing some more. I'd play that total over Without Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips up front, the defensive line was not near as suffocating as it had been the first two weeks. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, has accounted for more touchdowns this season than all but one team in the league.

On the other side, Josh Allen gets a Ravens defense that is ranked dead last in yards allowed per game. Close games have the Giants a bit overrated still, despite the loss to Dallas last week. Nobody wants to watch the plodding Chicago offense these days, but the Bears have a higher DVOA than the Giants through three games because of a better defense 11th compared to 28th for the G-Men. I think the Bears can keep it close and I would actually favor them to win outright, but I'll happily take the 3.

With a total of just I discussed why above, but I want to share one additional insight. The Eagles have a robust running game behind their stout offensive line. However, the Jaguars' defensive front could give them trouble. Jacksonville's defense ranks ninth in run stop win rate. Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell is familiar with how to plan to defend quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Last year, he was part of the defensive staff that orchestrated Hurts' worst game as a pro against the Buccaneers in the Eagles' wild-card game loss. Hurts padded his stats in the fourth quarter. Through three quarters, he was for for yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns What is your favorite player prop?

Schatz: Trevor Lawrence over Lawrence's strong pocket management means he usually doesn't have to tuck and run when he faces pass pressure. He has only 22 rushing yards in three games in But the Eagles are going to bring a lot more pass rush than he has seen this season. If Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins can each gain over 20 rushing yards against the Eagles, Lawrence should have a couple of good scrambles in him to hit Play for Free Moody: Michael Pittman over Pittman has been excellent in both games he has played in this season, averaging 11 targets and Pittman should feast on the Titans' inexperienced secondary, which has given up some epic receiving performances to Stefon Diggs , Davante Adams and Sterling Shepard this season.

Despite missing one game, Pittman leads the Colts' receivers in targets and receptions. Fulghum: Josh Allen over I think the Bills spend a majority of this game chasing the Ravens on the scoreboard. ET, ESPN2 that aims to better serve the millions of sports fans who participate in sports wagering and help educate general sports fans with in-depth analysis. Seven of their past eight home games have gone over the total. Sunday, p. Tennessee Titans -2, Run it how you want. Choose your league size, customize the scoring and set the rules you want to follow in order to create the fantasy hockey league you want to play in.

To close the season, the Giants failed to cover their last four games that went under the total. This season? A perfect when unders come through.

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Doug Kezirian: On a macro level, I would say it's how many backup quarterbacks we have seen and how we handicap those games. Some, such as Cooper Rush , have shined. Others have looked very bad. Oddsmakers and the betting market are kind of lost with how to assess power ratings with these backup quarterbacks.

Joe Fortenbaugh: Teams traveling back from London. There have been seven instances in which a team played in London and then immediately in America the next week without going on a bye. In those seven instances, the opponent of the London team has gone over their team total six times. We saw it happen twice last week with the Bears eclipsing their team total against the Vikings and the Seahawks eclipsing their team total against the Saints Minnesota and New Orleans had played in London the week prior.

As a result, I like the Jets to go over Aaron Schatz: The biggest game of the week is Buffalo and Kansas City, and that's the biggest betting storyline as well because Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his career. The Chiefs are against the spread when they've been underdogs with Mahomes at quarterback. Can the Bills break that streak and, more importantly, win this game?

Anita Marks: I agree with Aaron Wink was the Ravens' DC for four seasons -- facing Lamar Jackson at practice and probably knows his tendencies better than any other DC in the league. We will be watching the ultimate game of Battleship!

I'll take Captain Lamar and the Ravens team total over The NBA season is almost here. What are your thoughts on the side and total 54 for this game? Kezirian: This has all the makings of a shootout, and I believe 54 is too low.

It's pretty simple. These two teams rank first and second in offensive efficiency, and the Chiefs' defense is among the league's worst. Plus, each quarterback is his team's best player and will have the green light to sling it. Give me the over. Fortenbaugh: I'm playing Buffalo over Short week for a Kansas City defense that absolutely stinks defending the pass. And it's not like Buffalo is scared to play at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Bills went at Kansas City last year while scoring 36 or more points both times. I'm expecting a big game from Stefon Diggs. Schatz: I'm staying away from the spread, which I think is right on the money given how good these teams have been this season. Instead, I'll go with an under play because I think these defenses are a bit underrated.

Buffalo is currently No. The Bills' defense has been better than their offense this year! The Chiefs aren't as good on that side of the ball, but they're an average defense this season, which is more than we usually expect from them. I know how good these quarterbacks are, but 54 is a high number to hit. Erin Dolan: Hard not to back the over here. Including playoffs, the average total for Josh Allen vs.

Mahomes in their four matchups is 55 points, and each of their past three meetings have hit the over. That average total for these QBs is the highest for any QB matchup in the last 35 seasons. Also of note, completely agree with Joe Fortenbaugh's analysis above. Kansas City's defense is not that good and Allen and company should feast on that.

Eric Moody: Bettors are expecting a high-scoring game between the Bills and Chiefs. That's what I think too. Allen and Mahomes have played at MVP levels this season. The last three matchups between Buffalo and Kansas City have averaged 66 total points, with each outing surpassing this week's total.

In terms of points per game this season, the Chiefs are first with While Buffalo will want revenge for their demise the last two seasons, I'm taking Kansas City and the points. At home, the Bills offense averages Regardless, I'm sure the AFC showdown will be exciting to watch and will have numerous twists and turns. These were expected to be two of the best teams in the league entering the season, and they've been exactly that so far.

I expect this to be a competitive game and for both teams to put plenty of points on the board. In a game that I consider a pick 'em that could go down to the wire, I like having that field goal leeway in my team's favor. The two times these teams played last season, they combined for 58 points in regulation both times 64 points total in overtime, in the playoffs matchup. I'm expecting a similar outcome this time around. Marks: How often are we going to get Reid and Mahomes as a home 'dog!?!?

Sign me up! The Bills play a lot of zone coverage, an area where Mahomes thrives. Philadelphia is currently a 6-point favorite and the total for the game is Fortenbaugh: Under 42 points. Philly is banged up along the offensive line and facing a solid Dallas defense that has yet to surrender more than 19 points in a game.

On the other side of the field stands Cooper Rush and a Cowboys offense that ranks 24th in scoring. This is a good Philly defense that will have the benefit of a raucous Lincoln Financial Field at its back. Schatz: I've been driving the Eagles bandwagon since they were my NFC Super Bowl pick in the preseason, and I'm not going to stop now that they're They're the better offense and an equal defense, and they're at home, so give me Eagles I'm also taking the Eagles to win the division, in particular because they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, but I wouldn't put money down with those odds because they almost exactly match what we have in our playoff odds simulation at Football Outsiders.

Dolan: Philly first half It's an automatic play until the Eagles drop the ball on this. They are outsourcing opponents to 45 in the first half this season -- by far the best such scoring margin in the NFL. The Eagles are also the fourth team in the past 15 seasons to not trail in the second half through their first five games. Blake Bortles and the Jaguars gained yards against the Chiefs.

He threw four interceptions, including three in the end zone and a pick-six, and lost a fumble. I will credit the defense for forcing the turnovers and ultimately being the reason they earned the win, but you can't expect to be gifted five turnovers in a game in the manner Bortles did it. Penalties are also an issue with the Chiefs. They are second-to-last in the league, averaging nine penalties per game. The least penalized team? The Patriots. I wrote about the market overreaction on New England after their loss in Detroit three weeks ago.

We bet the Patriots Since that time, New England has cruised to fairly easy covers against the spread in both of their games and the offense that had "major issues" has put up 38 points in each contest. The current line is New England If Kansas City is able to go into Foxborough against what appears to be a refocused Patriots team and get the win, I may be willing to concede the Chiefs are a legitimate contender -- despite their defense.

I'm excited to find out.