Opinion polling eu referendum betting

Telephone polls have consistently found more support for remaining in the EU than online polls. Overall, however, online polls seem to have had a better performance than phone polls. Online surveys, on average, predicted a "leave" win with a 1. They have different methodologies; for example, some give more weight to recent polls than others, some deal with undecided voters differently, and some attempt to adjust for the consistent gap between telephone and online polling. As a result, the polls of polls give a spread of results.

The real story of this campaign is that not enough attention was paid to good polls, not the reverse. News websites included live tracking of betting odds on their pages and main news stories would often include references to the betting odds as well as any new polling information. Throughout the campaign, the betting markets showed huge confidence in a Remain victory — odds on Brexit were often as long as , including on the day of the vote when at one point they hit Not only do the betting markets not have access to any special knowledge — there is no special knowledge that they could even theoretically have access to.

Polls are the only primary evidence for how an election campaign is going, and the betting markets simply chart the consensus narrative which in this case, as so often, proved to be wrong. Even as the night wore on and it became increasingly clear that Leave had won the betting exchanges still had them as second favourites as high as at times.

Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead, sometimes by as much as 18 points, narrowing to an average 2. The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1. It makes perfect sense — why would you answer a survey if a stranger calls you on the telephone?

Online polls are quick and convenient to take part in and you are paid to take part — that is why a more representative group of people is happy to answer them. Half way through the campaign, YouGov analysis argued that phone polls were wrong and that online was accurately calling a leave lead. This was based on showing that level of education was the key to the election, as turned out to be the case.

Phone polls struggle to reach the less educated in society and it was their over-representation of graduates that skewed them towards remain. Online polls by contrast were able to better represent the educational make-up of the UK. Most importantly, because respondents to our polls are members of a panel of , people across the UK and we already know a lot about them, we can select people to make a representative sample in a way that telephone pollsters calling strangers never can.

They hired a former city trader to conduct an analysis of whether the telephone polls or the online polls were more reliable. It was prominently featured on Newsnight and gave ballast to many commentators who wanted to believe that Remain were ahead.

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According to two out of three pollsters, managerial, professional and administrative workers were most likely to favour staying in the EU, while semi-skilled and unskilled workers, plus those reliant on benefits, were the largest demographic supporting leave. University graduates are generally more likely to vote remain compared to those with no qualifications.

Telephone polls have consistently found more support for remaining in the EU than online polls. Overall, however, online polls seem to have had a better performance than phone polls. Online surveys, on average, predicted a "leave" win with a 1. Unfortunately not enough attention was paid to this evidence, and the media, campaigns, betting and financial markets continued to presume that Brexit would not happen, despite warnings from YouGov again and again and again and again that this confidence was misplaced.

Three days before the vote, YouGov showed a two point lead for Leave. When this was announced on Sky News at 10pm, this time it was reported across the world as a confident prediction of a Remain victory. Other online pollsters did better - congratulations to TNS and Opinium , the two online pollsters that recorded Leave ahead even at the end.

Every other source of information suggested that a victory for Remain was a done deal - only the online polls revealed the true state of the race. The real story of this campaign is that not enough attention was paid to good polls, not the reverse.

News websites included live tracking of betting odds on their pages and main news stories would often include references to the betting odds as well as any new polling information. Throughout the campaign, the betting markets showed huge confidence in a Remain victory — odds on Brexit were often as long as , including on the day of the vote when at one point they hit Not only do the betting markets not have access to any special knowledge — there is no special knowledge that they could even theoretically have access to.

Polls are the only primary evidence for how an election campaign is going, and the betting markets simply chart the consensus narrative which in this case, as so often, proved to be wrong. Even as the night wore on and it became increasingly clear that Leave had won the betting exchanges still had them as second favourites as high as at times. Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead, sometimes by as much as 18 points, narrowing to an average 2.

The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1. It makes perfect sense — why would you answer a survey if a stranger calls you on the telephone? Online polls are quick and convenient to take part in and you are paid to take part — that is why a more representative group of people is happy to answer them. Half way through the campaign, YouGov analysis argued that phone polls were wrong and that online was accurately calling a leave lead.

This was based on showing that level of education was the key to the election, as turned out to be the case.