Good masters bets

The key to winning this week is the space between the ears and though you can't put a number on it, there are certain guys that are built to win big events. I think we know who those guys are, for the most part. It also doesn't hurt to have a solid short game. Alex Miceli, Morning Read: Short game is key. And not just wedge play or sand game, but the combination with a strong flat stick.

With wider-than-average fairways, proper angles for hitting the greens is key, but when you miss, hopefully in the correct places, getting up-and-down is what makes the difference. Jeff Ritter, Morning Read: I like a mix of current form and course history, blended with a few metrics like strokes gained off the tee and around the green. Because the Masters is the only major with the same host venue each year, course history obviously deserves more weight here than in any other major — but I also think course history as a Masters predictor is more significant than at any other weekly Tour stop.

Experience and comfort really matter here. Tiger Woods is a self-declared "game-time decision" this week. Will you go anywhere near him in fantasy games or betting pools? He's been on the shelf for more than a year. Vara: I will not go near him this week. It would be a great story if he were to play well — heck, it's a great story that he's playing at all. But I can't imagine his game is tournament-ready. Plus, you aren't getting any value in the betting markets, because the public will bet him down.

Same issue in fantasy circles, as the public wants to see Tiger play well, so they'll drive up ownership. I doubt you can sneak Woods in as a sleeper anywhere. Van Sickle: Absolutely. The only thing better than a miracle Tiger win again is being able to say, "Yeah, I had him. We don't have enough information to know.

We do know that he likes doing what others think is impossible. Unless he quits golf, I'll never write him off. Ritter: I won't go near him in any pool that I'm serious about. But like Gary mentioned, it's fun to hold a ticket for the best story of the week, and a Tiger victory would require its own Netflix documentary.

Hochberg: I actually think Tiger can make the cut. Putting aside the older former champs and amateurs, about two-thirds of the field, maybe more, will get to the weekend. Is Tiger Woods better than of those other guys in this field, even after not playing for real in almost 18 months?

On this course in the magnitude of this tournament, absolutely. But it's hard to expect much more than sticking around for the weekend, and in the betting and fantasy markets you always have to pay more for Tiger. Give us one favorite odds or less you think could disappoint this week. Van Sickle: Scottie Scheffler has got to feel like he took too many sips on a Slurpee and got brainfreeze after his three wins, rise to No.

If he can't get ready, I wouldn't blame him. Would I still bet him? Well, it would be dumb not to. Vara: Viktor Hovland has managed to play relatively well in his two starts at the Masters T21 and T32 , but I can't imagine his short game will hold up through four rounds at Augusta until he addresses his issues around the green. The rest of his game is just fine and he's bound to win a major sometime soon, but there's just too much trouble when missing the greens at Augusta for anyone that can't trust his short game.

Ritter: Collin Morikawa's form is shaky, really for the first time in a couple of years, and this doesn't feel like the week he's going to find it. Augusta is a "feel" track, and his analytics-based mindset is a poor fit. Miceli: If defending champion Hideki Matsuyama does play, he appears to be very suspect as he's battling a bad neck. Hochberg: It's hard to believe that a top-5 golfer can be dead-last in an important statistical category, but Viktor Hovland ranks th and last in strokes gained: around-the-green.

That tells us how utterly elite Hovland is with other parts of his game. But you need your wedges to succeed this week, and that's a big ask for Hovland. The Masters has a strange tendency to produce aging contenders. What something do you think could surprise and find himself on the leaderboard deep into Sunday afternoon? Van Sickle: Do you mean other than guys whose names rhyme with Liger?

Louis Oosthuizen is the guy who just won't go away. He was pesky in last year's majors, notably the U. Open at Torrey Pines, and he has a fine track record at Augusta. The year he lost to Bubba Watson in a playoff, he was just unlucky. Louis can still hang. Hochberg: His initials are not T. His initials aren't P. I'm gonna be P. Sure, we don't know the situation with the back injury that that derailed him at the Match Play.

But he seemed kinda chipper on Twitter the other day saying he was looking forward to the Masters. Casey has made 15 Masters starts with eight tops, five of them doubling as tops. Ritter: Justin Rose has finished second twice and cracked the top last year after leading early. It feels like he's always in the picture here, and even though his current form isn't great, Augusta seems to be a place where he often finds it.

Vara: I think this tendency used to be more prevalent when you had past champions like Jose Maria Olazabal, Bernhard Langer and Fred Couples closer to their primes, or at least within two decades of their primes, but with those guys well past their better days, there aren't that many good options in this category any longer. Paul Casey would have been my first choice here, but back issues are unpredictable, so I'll side with Adam Scott, who is a past champion. Miceli: Louie Oosthuizen is 39, which is close enough for me to He should already be wearing a green jacket if not for a little bad luck.

Vara: Abraham Ancer , who I realize just withdrew this past week at the Valero Texas Open, but as of now he's still listed in the field. If not for his withdrawal in Texas, his odds would be much lower, so we're getting some value baked into this number. Ancer played well at the WGC Match Play a couple weeks back and he fared well at Augusta in his first two tries there. There's certainly some risk with this play given that we don't know exactly why he pulled out of the Valero, but there's risk with any long shot.

That's why we get long odds. Miceli: Gary Woodland has one major on his shelf, but since his U. Open win at Pebble Beach he's been lacking in the winner column. His game seems to be back and he is close to hitting on all cylinders. Van Sickle: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, , is a stick.

So is Seamus Power, also Sepp Straka recently won the Honda Classic and pretty much shot the apple off the Bear's head. At , I could use him to pay for new carpeting upstairs at my house. Ritter: Tyrrell Hatton is interesting at He sort of reminds me of Jon Rahm in that he burns so hot it sometimes holds him back, especially in majors.

But his tee-to-green game is a great fit for Augusta, and he's riding a stretch of good play, including a runner-up at Bay Hill. At that price, I'm in. Hideki Matsuyama became the first Japanese man to win a major tournament when he took home the Green Jacket a year ago.

Here are some other mid-tier contenders and longshots who could end up having memorable tourneys. He shot a steady to finish one stroke back of Matsuyama in his first Masters one year ago. He leads all golfers on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained in The Canadian does have consecutive top Masters finishes though. Conners is solid off the tee and that often makes life easier for him on his approach shots. Lefties have a solid reputation at Augusta and Harman finished T12 at The Masters just one year ago, which was his second-best result at a major.

Here are a few Masters props to consider. Marc Leishman and Justin Rose have also done well at Augusta over the years. Tiger Woods to make the cut : There are 91 golfers expected to compete in the field and at least 50 will make the cut. Tiger knows his way around this course as well as anyone so if he is indeed hitting the ball reasonably well, as has been reported, then getting on the right side of the cut line is entirely within the realm of possibility regardless of this latest layoff.

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