Us election betting market

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In , bettors correctly predicted President Joe Biden's win and called nearly every state correctly. Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models, and everything else. There's something about "putting your money where your mouth is" that focuses the mind. It turns out that when bettors think a candidate has a 63 percent chance, those candidates do win roughly 63 percent of the time.

One reason bettors predict more accurately is because bettors consider things polls and prediction models often miss. In , Clinton-favoring polls overlooked people without college degrees. Polltakers were also misled by Trump supporters who refused to talk to them. That's because uptight, narrow-minded American politicians banned gambling on elections. Fortunately, they made an exception for PredictIt. Our foolish bureaucrats promise to shut PredictIt down, but for now, we can take advantage of the "wisdom of the crowd" that PredictIt provides.

Which party will win the Pennsylvania Senate race? Republican Mehmet Oz is favored, 54 cents to 49 cents. Who will be Arizona's next governor? Kari Lake leads 82 cents to 22 cents. The first Cabinet member to quit? Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, at 32 cents out of a dollar. If you think you know more than the bettors, you can try to make money by betting at PredictIt. All this betting gives us valuable information about the likely future.

Since betting markets are clearly superior predictors, I'm surprised that anyone still pays attention to pundits. I no longer watch the blabbermouths on television. I check the odds at ElectionBettingOdds. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on October 23, Those odds have shifted massively, and Trump is now alone at the top of the board as U.

Although the former POTUS has yet to formally announce he will campaign in , he recently told New York Magazine that he has already made up his mind and that his "big decision" is whether to go before or after the midterms. That said, there is a growing concern that while Trump might be a shoo-in to win the Republican primary, he would have a tougher time winning the general election than other, less-polarizing candidates.

While in the past, Trump has suggested that DeSantis would be unlikely to run against him, things may have changed. With Trump having a history of handing out endorsements based on loyalty, DeSantis refusing to kiss the ring could be a sign that he's seriously considering running against him.

Joe Biden's odds of winning the US presidential election President Biden's approval rating has jumped a bit from its lowest point, hitting Biden's latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him just a Despite healthy growth in the US job market and relatively low levels of unemployment, the Biden regime continues to face plenty of obstacles. Chief among them are surging inflation, high fuel prices, and global supply chains still hindered by the COVID pandemic.

He's also dealing with criticism from his Democrat base, who feel like the party is losing key ground on issues like gun reform and abortion. With criticism from all sides, Biden might not even be the party nominee if the Democrats take a beating during the midterms. Kamala Harris' odds of winning the US presidential election Harris has seen her odds tumble, but she remains the Democrat favorite if Biden decides not to run again. The Smarkets exchange gives her a Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and is struggling to break ground with her two biggest projects, border migration, and national voting reform.

Harris was previously on the U. Senate and has also served as the Attorney General of California.