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Here is how the OEC defines PPP: PPPs are the rates of currency conversion that equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between coun- tries. In their simplest form, PPPs are simply price relatives which show the ratio of the prices in national currencies of the same good or service in different coun- tries. For example, if the price of a hamburger in France is 2. This means that for every dollar spent on hamburger in the United States, 1.

The task of the forex trader is to access the PPP information in a timely way and use it to determine a potential direction for the trade. Since the pro- cess of reverting back to a mean PPP takes time, it is a perfect application of longer-term option trades. The most overvalued currency was the Swiss franc, and the most undervalued was the Chinese yuan. The euro appears overvalued by 23 percent and the British pound by 18 percent. In contrast, the Mexican peso, The British pound, the yen, and the yuan were undervalued, suggesting purchasing longer-term calls on these cur- rency pairs.

Where the strike prices should be can be suggested by the prediction that these currencies will retrace by at least 50 percent of the amount they are calibrated to be overvalued or undervalued. The duration of the options should be longer term than most, six months to a year!

Of course, variations such as put and call spreads can be applied as well as combinations such as shorting the spot underlying and buying protec- tive hedges. The Big Mac Index, July 5, , www. Figure 4. As a result, the forex trader can play a long-term reversion to the PPP equilibrium by buying puts and put spreads on the overvalued pairs and calls and call spreads on the undervalued pairs. It is worthy to note that the yen and the New Zealand dollar are the closest to their equilibrium point.

This suggests trades of a shorter-term nature. Source: www. Tracking Fundamental Directions 87 2. Which are overvalued and undervalued based on the Big Mac theory? A useful exercise would be to compare how predictive these charts Figures 4. At the end of , the U. The PPP chart in Figure 4. It is based on long-run PPP estimates of the U. A forex trader using this chart could put on a long-term call on the dollar for a potential dollar bounce.

These indexes are used by economists and central banks to forecast trend di- rection and currency strength. They can be easily accessed at www. See Table 4. The main question facing the forex trader that the TWI can answer is: Is the currency getting stronger or weaker? While traders trade one currency against another, the ques- tion of how strong a currency is can be answered in reference to the trade basket of that currency.

The TWI baskets generate an index that provides a useful clue as to whether a currency is globally stronger or weaker from its trading point of view. The TWI chart for shows a breakdown of a strengthening uptrend in the GBP at the end of July , and there- upon a beginning of a downward channel. This suggested fundamental reason to antici- pate a decline of the GBP. The forex trader using TWI patterns was able to anticipate a change in direction, if not an immediate one.

The trader should not be surprised that a particular currency pair is moving opposite to the direction suggested by the TWI patterns. Trade patterns take time to impact currency moves. This, however, is a very good sign. The trader can wait for the market to come to him see Figure 4. Among the most important commodity—currency connections are the gold, copper, and oil sectors. Scanning these sector commodity price patterns can give the forex trader early identification of impending changes in the currencies that are closely related to them.

Tracking Fundamental Directions 95 The major commodity—currency connections are important because ultimately they provide very effective data for preparing forex spot and option trading. This makes sense because world trade essentially provides the reason for the currency—commodity con- nection. A country produces a product and exports it to another country. The producer needs to get paid for the product.

This means that the buyers of the product have to take their currency and convert it to the currency of the producer of the product. So when China buys Australian copper, there is money flow converting Chinese renminbi to Australian dollars. The top commodity—currency connections involve several commodity sectors. These include oil, gold, copper, and agricultural exports such as sugar.

It is a rational deduction that the currencies of the countries that produce these commodities will be affected by events that impact those commodities. The correlations between price action in these commodities and currency prices are seen in Figure 4. The close correlation between commodities and currencies can be easily seen in Figures 4. We see oil and the Canadian dollar in sync with each other. While oil and gold are the most popular commodities that impact currencies, there are others as well.

Tracking Fundamental Directions 97 to copper since Australia is the second-largest producer of copper and its currency is readily tradable. Tracking commodity markets is becoming easier for the forex trader. The ETFs are valuable resources for tracking these commodity patterns. By monitoring ETF price action and option information when available the forex trader can obtain an edge in developing an accurate diagnosis of conditions in the commodity markets as they relate to forex price action.

There is a growing number of ETFs providing tracking of key commodity sectors. A good idea is to access their web sites for detailed information. There are many dimensions that define the optimal condition for a forex option trade. Certainly, foremost among them is the nature of the price action. But at the start of the process is the overall fundamental environment of the price action. It is essential for the trader to develop a currency outlook for all of the currency pairs.

In order to do this, the trader can use the following currency outlook checklist to establish a framework for deciding on the direction of a currency pair. The currency outlook checklist serves to keep the forex trader accountable to assessing fundamental issues. These are too often overlooked. The forex trader will greatly benefit by being able to complete this checklist. Some traders will look to be very detailed, while others will be more cursory in their decision process.

Ultimately, anticipating a direction is the key first step in developing a forex option strategy. An Excel spreadsheet input form of the currency outlook checklist is available at www. Currency Outlook Checklist 1. Inflation Latest Central bank target Actual target 3.

Possible Recession Housing starts Home price Yield curve inversion 5. Dollar Sentiment Central bank currency reserves of dollars U. Commodity Markets Gold Commodity index Oil 8. Treasuries—declining SUMMARY This chapter provided a review of how a forex option trader can build a fundamental knowledge base to help shape a decision on what direction to select for his next option trade.

Important also is analysis of commodity markets. A currency outlook checklist is presented as an aid to analysis. Chapter 5 reviews important chart patterns that identify condi- tions for entering a trade and display market sentiment. These patterns include parabolic paths, volatility envelopes, and channel patterns.

Trend reversal patterns can be identified using three-line break charts. There are also potential useful applications of Elliott wave theory. Chapter 5 also reviews the role of currency pair correlations in identifying forex option trading opportunities.

The most important are B parabolic paths, Bollinger bands, channel patterns, and three-line break charts. All provide useful tools in confirming the direction of an option trade and shaping strategies for selecting strike prices and direction.

While the direction of the option trade can occur based on fundamental analysis, the trader has to compare the conclusion to buy or sell with the reality of the price action. The best way to begin is to detect the presence of patterns in the currency pairs. Because patterns in forex are not random Brownian motion, they reflect human de- cisions and crowd behavior and they therefore provide the best clues for diagnosing mar- ket sentiment. Is the pair in a strong, weak, or stable trend?

Is its price action gaining or losing momentum? Is it exhausting? Is it probing trend lines? Is it confirming reversals? Is there a frequency to the pattern that is repeating an earlier pattern? The answers to the questions provide a virtual map of the price action. The parabolic price reaches an apex of nearly 90 degrees and cannot sustain itself. It becomes a prelude to exhaustion and possible reversal see Figure 5. Extreme Bollinger Bands A good way to identify exhaustion patterns and the location for whether a strike price is in an area likely to be reached is to use the weekly charts and use extreme Bollinger bands EBBs.

This is a setting of 13 periods and 2. The trader looks for a currency pair to be probing an EBB, and that price area can be used as a strike price that is selected. A forex option trader, seeing that the price is hugging the standard band and refusing to bounce off it, would also note that the extreme band has not been touched.

This would be a bullish conclusion. The price has room to keep going up. But when the weekly candles started touching the extreme outer Bollinger bands, the trader can start thinking about a retracement possibility or at least the price getting tired. They can use the location of the EBBs as potential areas for selecting an option target.

Trades, particularly option strategies anticipating range behavior, can benefit from using the EBBs. Channel Patterns Channel patterns can be sideways, uptrending, and downtrending channels see Figure 5. They indicate stability and a persistence of sentiment.

The trader can use channel patterns to shape target strike prices for entry and exit. Three-Line Break The forex option trader can benefit greatly from the use of three-line break charts. This section will demonstrate the powerful potential of this application. A three-line break presents consecutive highs and consecutive lows only. The color reverses when a price moves in the opposite direction and takes out the previous highs or lows see Figure 5.

This means that the trader can detect the start of a trend and project the beginning of a new trend see Figure 5. There are many ways to use a three-line break in helping the forex option trader make some trading strategies and decisions. One of the best ways is to identify where a trend reversal will occur. This was fundamentally due to the strengthenin European economy and also the weakening of the British housing market.

Figure 5. The trader who wants to trade the exhaustion of this trend would be able to use three-line break to identify where it would be over. This would suggest that the trader put on a 0. A three-month duration would be appropriate to allow time for this kind of event to occur. We can see that three price break projects reversal point locations. However, it does not project when they will occur. The forex option trader can employ several strategies. This com- bination of using spot trading with options enables longer-term trading.

Here is how to do it: First, select a day chart in a currency pair. Locate the appropriate origin of a low or a high. If the price is coming from a low, look for the highest high that preceded it. If the price is coming from a low, look for the lowest low that preceded it.

Then gener- ate a Fib resistance line. It will project out into time into the future. Look for the The price that is near or crosses that Fib line can be considered as one of the strike prices in an options play on the currency pair. In the example in Figure 5. The trader located the This projected that at 1. If the trader had a strategy to buy a retrace- ment or a weakening of the Canadian dollar then a 1. But the trader can use Fib analysis put on a December or January call option spread by buying a 1.

The logic of such a move would be that if the price had the energy to go through the If the trader was anticipating a bounce up, followed by a return down, then If the trader waited until the price actually went to 1. Further, using Fib theory, the trader sees where the 50 percent and the There are three motive waves and eight corrective waves.

More importantly, for applications to forex option trading, the best wave to identify would be an incomplete zigzag wave. In Figure 5. Once the Elliott wave software projects this B-to-C region, the forex option trader can select strike prices within that region and within the projected time frame. See Figure 5. The followers of Elliott wave may very well have a tool for forex option trading.

A con- clusion that Elliott wave patterns work for forex option trading needs further research to be conclusive. The volatility scan is similar to the price pattern scan in its objectives. The trader is looking for the volatility situations that are probing the extremes.

Find Currencies that Have Drifted from Their Historical Volatilities The first volatility scan is to find currencies that have drifted from their historical volatil- ities. Which pairs have their historical volatility greater than the implied volatility? The forex trader is looking for the extremes. There are many ways to find it.

Many are correlated to each other. When the trader spots a deviation from the expected correlation, a trade strategy can emerge. While correlations constantly are updated in real time, they historically have shown pairs that are highly correlated 80 percent or more in their movements. This can be a positive correlation where the pairs move together in the same direction, or a negative correlation where they move in opposite directions.

We can see in Tables 5. We can see monthly Figure 5. TABLE 5. Percentile Based on Implied Vol. Percentile Symbol Price Impl. Percentile GC8Q A quick way of accessing this information is by locating a free list offered by www. This firm scans all options and produces a table. The trader can use this table every day to find currency options that may appear on their list. Its also very useful in finding options on related commodities such as bonds, gold, and the U.

In Table 5. The criterion used is the implied volatility and whether it the implied volatility was in its highest percentile. We see that gold options appear at the top. The forex option trader would see this as a confirming indicator of being dollar bullish. The gold option is too expensive, and therefore is a leading indicator for being bullish on the dollar. If gold declines, the dollar goes up. Table 5. SUMMARY You have now been introduced to the important role that chart patterns can play in identify conditions for shaping a forex option strategy.

You have also been introduced to Elliott wave theory and patterns, including the zigzag pattern, which promises to be the most important pattern for forex option traders. Finally the importance of detecting volatility conditions and correlations between currency pairs and which pairs are out of their statistically correlations has been discussed. Chapter 6 will show you how to go one step further by using expert sources to shape your trading decisions. It is used by governments all over the world and authoritative economic institutions.

One example is the Reuters Tankan Poll, which is a monthly survey of leading Japanese companies. The Internet is full of accessible information. For example, on the last day of , the following forecast was on the Net: Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be Splunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. They provide frequent polling of economists and experts about poten- tial currency price movements. They are very useful in shaping a directional opinion. The forex option trader needs to keep in mind that forecasting accuracy on forex price movements is really about accuracy in a given period of time.

One can be very accurate predicting a key decision of the central banks for the next day, but as the forecasting period extends into the future, uncertainty becomes a factor and forecast accuracy is very uncertain. The forecast came out the same day and predicted no change in the rates. It was correct. The rest forecast a quarter-point cut. The bank will announce the decision at noon in London.

But what happens if the forecast is for several months out? The consensus among experts will reflect less agreement. For example, Figures 6. But when the forecast horizon is extended to the fourth quarter of , the agree- ment among economists gets dispersed. These services are mainly used by institutions but have migrated to the public as well. Some of the leading services are described in this section.

The key test is whether the fore- casts translate it into actionable knowledge. For example, a recent forecast of this site projected an increase in housing starts in February , shown in Table 6. This sug- gests a potential dollar strengthening into the spring if the trader used this projection to shape an option trade. In using these projections as an aid to shaping strategy, a good idea is to give the trade a longer period of time for the projected fundamentals to take hold.

Index It produces a monthly consensus report on gross domestic product GDP and reports expert opinion on key economic variables and their projected values into the coming year. The following fore- cast was issued on Blue Chip in its January 10, , survey of opinion see Figure 6. In the report, Blue Chip reported a consensus on housing: Prospects for the housing sector remain grim. The consensus now expects total housing starts in to only 1.

Combined inventories of new and existing unsold homes remain near a record high, lending standards have tightened considerably foreclosures will likely accelerate this year as adjustable rate mortgages resets surge and the unemployment rate increases. Real residential investment may continue to subtract more than a full percentage point form the rate of real GDP growth during the first half of Based on this consensus of opinion, further decreases in U.

The trader should be careful about concluding that this news jus- tifies dollar selling. Remember, currency pairs are trades of one currency versus another. In the same report, Blue Chip reported on forecasts of a slowing of other economies: International Commentary.

Consensus forecasts of inflation-adjusted economic growth abroad also have fallen over recent months The consensus now predicts real GDP in the Eurozone will grow only 1. In contrast, consensus forecasts of global inflation this year have increased; reflecting sharp increases in energy and food costs.

The trader using this kind of guru survey can develop well-informed views on whether a particular currency pair can be strengthening, weakening, or will be range- bound. What is most impressive and useful is the ability to find the highest and lowest fore- casts, and a trader can align himself with one of them as well.

The list also tracks the accuracy of the forecasters, enabling a trader to put more emphasis on some sources. They provide two-year projections of rates. See Table 6. TABLE 6. One strategy would be to be contrarian and reject the highs and lows, and therefore one strategy would be to a sell strangle where one can sell calls and also sell puts praying that the gurus are wrong! Consensus Economics Consensus Economics is a company that polls over economists to obtain their fore- cast www.

Source: Consensus Forecasts. The trader needs to assess how accurate the analysts have proven to be before they blindly follow their recommendations. For example, Bloomberg often surveys analysis and also tracks their performance. As ended, Bloomberg surveyed 27 traders on projections of gold prices. The survey reported that 14 of 27 analysts recommended buy- ing gold. The survey accuracy was out of weeks on the direction.

That is 62 percent. This is an example of an effective use of following the gurus. Economic adviser David Kern warns the risks have increased and the correct policy response to avoid a nasty downturn is to cut interest rates soon, even if some of the cuts will have to be reversed at a later date. Kern believes rates will be shaved to at least 5. Reading this, the forex trader could on November 29 formulate a directional view of the GBP. Following the forecast meant that selling the GBP would be the strategy.

These will be discussed in a later chapter but, clearly, closely tracking the forecast see Figure 6. This is because when housing prices are increasing, the probabilities of decreasing interest rates are very low. Central banks fear inflationary pressures would be strengthened with any decrease in rates.

The forex trader should look very closely to track housing data. Figure 6. Several weeks later, on December 6, the BOE decided to cut rates. Forward-looking sur- veys of households and businesses suggest spending is moderating, broadly in line with the projections contained in the November Inflation Report.

But conditions in financial markets have deteriorated and a tightening in the supply of credit to households and businesses is in train, posing downside risks to the outlook for both output and inflation further ahead. Higher energy and food prices are expected to keep inflation above the target in the short term.

Although upside risks to inflation remain, which the Committee will continue to monitor carefully, slowing demand growth should ease the pressures on supply capacity, bringing inflation back to target in the medium term. At least for now the immediate outlook is for housing construc- tion to actually be stronger than it has been.

This kind of data leads to expectation of strength in the Australian dollar and a direc- tional strategy of going long that currency. Housing data such as lending for construction of new homes issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics should be followed for traders following the aussie. There are many think tanks that scan the world economy.

They come out with key reports about the economies of different countries. This suggestion would spark in- terest in puts on the U. Some of the best think tank sources are also major banks. These banks issue fore- casts of their economies. The trader should scan and read bank reports. Source of DBS group research: www. For example, in the Global Currency Forecast issued by Scotia Capital, a trader can convert the forecast into a strategy of being bullish or bearish a currency pair.

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