Handicap betting nba trends

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Sportsbooks do this in the way they present the spread. Consider this hypothetical matchup: Golden State Warriors A spread of Heavy favorites are easy enough to identify in the NBA. But the returns on an outright moneyline bet i. It works in the reverse fashion for underdogs. Fading Large Spreads Many bettors like to invest in demonstrative underdogs.

There is value in this approach. NBA teams like to rest key players when they build big leads. Meanwhile, coaches on the losing side may also decide to wave an early white flag. If the Lakers trail the Warriors by 16 points entering the fourth quarter, they could decide to rest their best players the rest of the way, which opens the door for Golden State to cover as favorites even if they play their own second-stringers. Why is that a tip you ask?

Look at overnight numbers or early-morning numbers because usually teams don't announce players that are out for rest until early afternoon. A great way to find some soft numbers or betting underdogs and totals is waiting for the announcement of rested starters.

While waiting, you can also find some outstanding 'middle' opportunities if teams decide to rest their starters. In the NBA, every season, teams go on double-digit ATS winning streaks, and typically they cover each and every one of those games quite easily. Watching NBA games as much as you can is truly important in this field. You cannot win in this sport if you just bet on the teams and track them on your phone. Watch teams as much as you can, and you will have a much better idea of which teams are playing at high levels and which ones are about to go on that huge romp through the league.

The NBA is a grind, and it is an absolute endurance race. Don't get too down if you lose a sprint or two as the value is outlasting the season, and we here at SPS are one of the best in the nation at doing just that. It is called the "active underdog over theory". The active underdog theory is essentially taking an underdog that you believe will be an active underdog either due to revenge against a team from an earlier season loss, coming off a double-digit loss, losing outright to a team they were heavily favored against, etc.

So you expect a team that is looking to exceed expectations over the line currently constructed for them. So anytime that you think a team that is an underdog is going to exceed expectations against a team then take the 'over'. This is because if the underdog is highly motivated as we discussed for revenge, coming off a double-digit loss, or losing outright to a team they were favored straight up against, then certainly they will be motivated to exceed the number of points they are expected to score in their next game.

That's the case with the NBA. Pro basketball is about as situational as it gets for me, and I'd like to share one such situation. Are you at your very best the day after arriving home from a day or more journey? Probably not. And most NBA players aren't either. Players off a lengthy road trip have distractions upon arriving at home, from unpacking to dealing with family, among other things.

We never play on teams off a lengthy road-trip and often play against those teams. It's one of a few working situations with a long track record you may want to jot down and factor into your daily NBA handicapping.

You clearly know that Team A is better than Team B in numerous areas, including the man-to-man matchups and talent level, yet they fail to cover a large spread by a point or two. One way I have been able to capture wins against the spread is first-half lines in this scenario. You always have to worry about a team, like recently Golden State as an example, becoming complacent in the second half with a big lead or resting starters, thus blowing a big lead late and the lesser team getting the backdoor cover on a big number.

To take this issue out of the equation, first half lines are usually 50 percent of what the total spread is, and many times a team will come out sharp and ready to play and the first half line in this scenario is easier to cover versus the whole game spread. In other words, laying 5 points on the halftime line is easier and less stressful than worrying about a or point whole game spread with other variables to worry about. There's no worse feeling than having a team you felt would win a game walking off the court smiling and happy for getting the win but it's a loser for you as they didn't win by enough points.

I decided that I wanted to try and make sure that if my team did win the game then most likely my bet was also a winner, too. So now the only way that my team can win and I still lose my bet are those rare times when I have exactly a point favorite that wins by just 1 point. Not only did this strategy change my entire mindset with betting on the NBA but it also took away most of my late-game stress also. I don't spend time now trying to figure out if a team I like is going to do enough to win by eight points or more because at that point there's way too much luck involved with my bet.

The league has started the season sooner to help lower the number of three games in four days, but they still occur. Another prime scheduling spot is teams off a two- or three-game road trip, which is not too taxing, but they have to play at home the night after being away. This can be even more a factor to bet against that club for first half wager.

Sign up for the package of your choice with Doug. It is inevitable although they will deny it, but it does happen. Try to find good teams coming off an emotional road win where the odds in their next game make you think it is a lock and then bet against that team. I find games like this every week where the lines look off and then I dive into the game deeper to make sure the upset is highly probable.

You can do the same is you have the time. Then NBA betting markets are extremely efficient and considered by many to be the hardest to beat long-term.

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