Intrade political betting odds

Embassy in London, November 6, ET in a handful of states, gamblers were still frantically placing final bets on the outcome of the election between Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. At InTrade, a website that allows users to play events like the election for a monthly fee, 3. In late October, each candidate typically saw between 50, and 60, shares of daily volume, according to Carl Wolfenden, exchange operations manager at InTrade, which is based in Dublin, Ireland. The site operates like a futures exchange, with users betting on the odds of an event occurring.

On PaddyPower. The level of trading on the site Tuesday counters a prominent criticism of such online markets, which is that limited use allows for the contracts to be pushed around, rendering them inaccurate reflections of the odds of an event occurring.

On October 23, a rash of bets favoring Romney caused the odds for the former governor of Massachusetts to spike suddenly and then evaporate. The online betting markets that offer this opportunity have been pretty consistent, with narrow odds favoring Obama. Every so often, however, odd trading occurs as these markets are notably less liquid and active than the average stock exchange.

Tuesday was one such example. InTrade, a Dublin, Ireland-based website that allows users to play events like the elections by trading contracts on predicted outcomes, showed a rash of bets that caused the odds for the Republican challenger to spike suddenly - and then evaporate. The betting site is one of the more popular ones and its presidential election contracts are among the most heavily traded surpasses those it offers on U.

Supreme Court rulings and the Academy Awards. Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, was viewed as having slightly less than a 40 percent chance of winning on Tuesday morning, but jumped as high as 48 percent on InTrade that morning before retreating.

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Think Mitt Romney is a lock to win the Republican presidential nomination? Wanna put some money on it? You can. Comment The web is teeming with futures markets that will let you place a wager on the outcome of all kinds of events. One of the most popular is Intrade, a website based in Ireland. Intrade lets users swap contracts on events with a yes or no outcome. President Obama will win reelection , or he won't. Wagers can be placed on all kinds of stuff -- like whether a bird flu epidemic will hit the United States or if alien life will be detected before the end of the year.

But Intrade isn't just about betting. Its users are -- taken together -- shockingly good at correctly forecasting election results. Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state during the presidential election. And that is way, way more accurate than most single polls -- to say nothing of the predictions offered by the professional pundit class.

Why is a prediction market better than a poll? How the economy could break Obama The idea is this: Just like Wall Street, the collective wisdom of thousands of bettors with skin in the game will yield a better guess than isolated data points. But now a little backlash has begun.

Last Tuesday, meanwhile, I e-mailed a high-profile Democratic economist and asked what he made of the dueling numbers coming from the California polls and from Intrade. He replied with a salty message, dismissing the usefulness of Intrade. Then there is Mr. Ravitch, a year-old lawyer turned poker player whose previous claim to fame was his role in exposing an online-poker cheating scandal.

He has generally been announcing his trades as he makes them, and most of them have paid off. In the span of just six weeks, he says, he has earned a 35 percent return. After what happened in the California primary — Mrs. Clinton won there handily — I started to wonder if he had a point. The mechanics of Intrade are simple enough. You can buy or sell a contract tied to the outcome of an event — Will Barack Obama win the California primary?

Will the United States or Israel bomb Iran this year? At p. For legal reasons, Americans often have to use bank transfers, instead of credit cards, on the site. The first is that the biases of a small group of traders can have a big effect on prices. And these biases seem most obvious in exaggerated odds for unlikely events. Ravitch has made a nice profit betting against Ron Paul, the libertarian who late last year was, amazingly, given almost a 10 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

Ravitch said, without finishing the sentence. On Intrade, they can. Along similar lines, Al Gore is now given an 11 percent chance of being the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, which Mr. Ravitch considers silly. After the drug maker Schering-Plough reported strong earnings on Tuesday, for example, its stock price jumped. But the stock is unlikely to continue soaring in coming weeks. The market has already adjusted to the news.

On Intrade, such reactions often happen in slow motion — and eventually turn into overreactions. The impact of each contest took surprisingly long to sink in.